22 июня Пестицид Ежедневный обзор: Поддержка затрат Остается, Настроения рынка Все еще Осторожно

The pesticide market remained generally subdued, with prices moving in a volatile and divergent pattern. Downstream demand was mainly need-based, while the cost-push logic may slow as geopolitical tensions ease. Some products still found support from temporary supply-demand mismatches, but high prices continued to trigger downstream negative feedback due to weak transmission along the value chain. The market is still waiting to see whether end-user demand can provide further support.

In the international market, expectations remain for stronger trade flows toward China. However, actual external demand will depend more on overseas seasonal cycles and the stockpiling willingness of international traders. Overall, this still provides medium- to long-term support for market sentiment.

In the short term, tensions in the Middle East have shown signs of easing. The U.S. and Iran have preliminarily signed a memorandum of understanding, significantly reducing the geopolitical risk premium. However, the market is still watching whether navigation through the Strait of Hormuz can be materially restored. Supply disruptions in the petrochemical chain remain difficult to reverse in the short term. Cost-driven momentum may slow, but bottom support is likely to remain.

Overall, cautious sentiment persists. Price increases in some upstream products continue to face transmission resistance downstream, upward drivers have weakened, and the market remains in a wait-and-see mode. Going forward, attention should be paid to geopolitical developments, export strength and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides

The herbicide market continued to weaken. Earlier inventory buildup among traders has led to some low-price selling. Although cost pressure from geopolitical risks still exists, expectations have eased after the broader peace outlook became clearer, while insufficient demand acceptance has failed to provide new upward momentum.

The U.S. has invoked the Defense Production Act to designate elemental phosphorus and glyphosate herbicides as critical defense materials, requiring priority protection of domestic supply. This move still provides support to the domestic market.

Overall, downstream buyers are mainly purchasing on a need-only basis. After short-term seasonal demand support weakens, market sentiment continues to soften. Further attention should be paid to whether exports improve and how geopolitical sentiment evolves.

Yellow Phosphorus

The yellow phosphorus market remained in a high-level bargaining phase. After the holiday, market trading sentiment eased and then stabilized. Upstream plants currently face limited inventory pressure, and producers still show some willingness to hold prices firm.

However, downstream products remain limited in their ability to follow price increases, and the transmission of rising cost pressure is still constrained. As Middle East geopolitical tensions ease, lower sulfur prices have partly reduced the substitution premium of thermal-process phosphoric acid. However, tight sulfur supply is unlikely to improve in the short term, limiting the downside. The market is expected to remain cautious for now.

Pesticide Market Price Overview

Herbicides

95% Glyphosate fell RMB 1,000 to RMB 29,000/tonne.

98% 2,4-D fell RMB 1,000 to RMB 17,000/tonne.

40% Diquat Mother Liquor fell RMB 2,000 to RMB 18,000/tonne.

95% Pretilachlor fell RMB 1,000 to RMB 31,000/tonne.

97% Haloxyfop-P-methyl fell RMB 2,000 to RMB 123,000/tonne.

Insecticides

97% Imidacloprid fell RMB 2,000 to RMB 73,000/tonne.

97% Chlorfenapyr fell RMB 5,000 to RMB 120,000/tonne.

96% Pyridaben fell RMB 3,000 to RMB 120,000/tonne.

98% Monosultap fell RMB 5,000 to RMB 85,000/tonne.

95% Indoxacarb (9:1) fell RMB 20,000 to RMB 480,000/tonne.

99% Metaldehyde fell RMB 2,000 to RMB 35,000/tonne.

96% Chlorantraniliprole fell RMB 5,000 to RMB 225,000/tonne.

Fungicides

96% Difenoconazole fell RMB 2,000 to RMB 80,000/tonne.

95% Cyproconazole fell RMB 4,000 to RMB 158,000/tonne.

96% Hexaconazole fell RMB 5,000 to RMB 90,000/tonne.

98% Azoxystrobin fell RMB 4,000 to RMB 130,000/tonne.

97% Pyraclostrobin fell RMB 5,000 to RMB 130,000/tonne.

96% Thifluzamide fell RMB 10,000 to RMB 240,000/tonne.

97% Hymexazol fell RMB 5,000 to RMB 80,000/tonne.

97% Trifloxystrobin fell RMB 10,000 to RMB 175,000/tonne.