Ежедневный отчет по карбамиду за 29 сентября: рынок ослабевает перед праздником, участники ожидают указаний от индийского тендера.

Domestic Urea Price Index

According to Feidoodoo data, the granular urea price index was 1,785.91 on September 29, down 0.91 compared to the previous working day, 0.05% lower on a monthly basis, and 6.45% higher on a yearly basis.

Futures Market Analysis

The urea futures contract UR2701 opened today at 1,746, reached a high of 1,758 and a low of 1,745, closing at 1,749, with a settlement price of 1,748. The closing price was 2 points lower than the previous trading day's settlement price, marking a decline of 0.11%. The main spot basis in Shandong against the January contract was at +12. Today's open interest in the January contract decreased by 4,478 lots to 249,434 lots.

Today, urea futures trading occurred within a narrow range. As the National Day holiday approaches, market participants' risk aversion increased, though the futures continued to follow the competitive dynamics of the spot market. Stagnation on the spot market before the holidays directly limited futures performance. On one hand, expectations of a new tender in India post-holiday continued to provide psychological support due to anticipated export boosting. On the other hand, domestic fundamentals remained weak: downstream restocking was limited, and there were no clear signs of recovery in the spot market, which constrained growth potential. Downstream end-user demand hadn't significantly improved yet. Fertilizer demand in agriculture is in an off-season, and industrial buyers remain cautious, leaving the overall fundamental picture nearly unchanged. On the whole, urea futures remain confined between expectations of export support and weak fundamentals. Conditions for a sustained directional move have yet to mature, and the market is likely to continue fluctuating narrowly. Key factors to watch include the Indian tender outcome, improvement in spot transactions, and the pace of autumn fertilizer demand initiation.

Spot Market Analysis

The Chinese urea spot market remained generally stable today, with prices consolidating. As the National Day holiday nears, some manufacturers in main regions continue to face a lack of orders, increasing shipment pressure and prompting discount offers. At the same time, factories with sufficient orders and low shipment pressure are willing to protect pricing and are reluctant to cut offers independently. Most market participants are currently adopting a wait-and-see approach, with the market lacking clear direction. The focus is on the Indian urea tender opening post-holiday, as participants hope that export news will provide guidance. In terms of supply and demand, the overall supply remains ample. On the demand side, the bulk autumn fertilizer restocking hasn't started yet, and production levels in complex fertilizer industries and other industrial consumers show only limited improvement, leading to weak underlying demand. Overall, the urea market is likely to continue consolidating in the short term. Main quotations are expected to remain generally stable, though individual producers may make slight flexible adjustments depending on order volumes and inventory. The market should continue to monitor developments related to the Indian tender and the release of pre-holiday restocking demand.

Overall, the domestic urea spot market in China continues to consolidate amid weak sentiment. Regarding supply, plants under maintenance earlier are gradually resuming operations, increasing daily industry output and slowly adding supply pressure; the overall availability remains unrestrained. On demand, despite manufacturers' attempts to secure orders and ship products before the National Day holiday, end-user demand hasn't improved significantly. Downstream buyers continue procuring only to satisfy fundamental needs, bulk autumn fertilizer reserves haven't started yet, and production levels in the compound fertilizer and industrial sectors have only marginally increased, leaving the main demand subdued. Currently, the market balances between cost and export support on one side and downward pressure from weak supply-demand dynamics on the other. Prices may continue to decline in the short term, though the likelihood of a sharp drop is limited. If prices fall to low levels, bargain-seeking buyers may emerge. Key factors to observe include developments in the Indian tender and the release of demand for pre-holiday inventory replenishment.

By region, prices remained stable at 1,790–1,810 yuan/ton in Northeast China; rose to 1,740–1,780 yuan/ton in East China; remained stable at 1,730–1,920 yuan/ton in Central China; stayed stable at 1,600–1,820 yuan/ton in North China; stayed stable at 1,800–1,840 yuan/ton in South China; stayed stable at 1,860–1,910 yuan/ton in Northwest China; and stayed stable at 1,660–1,900 yuan/ton in Southwest China.

Market Updates

On September 29: The estimated price of urea shipped to Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, was 1,820–1,840 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day.

On September 29: The estimated price of urea shipped to Nanning, Guangxi Province, was 1,800–1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day.

On September 29: The estimated price of urea shipped to Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, was 1,750–1,800 yuan/ton, generally unchanged from the previous working day.

On September 29: The estimated price of urea shipped to Wen'an, Hebei Province, was 1,780–1,800 yuan/ton, generally unchanged from the previous working day.

On September 29: Key market quotes in Shangqiu ranged from 1,730–1,750 yuan/ton for small and mid-sized granular urea, and about 2,040–2,050 yuan/ton for large granular urea.

On September 29: Key market quotes for small and mid-sized granular urea in Jingmen were 1,740–1,750 yuan/ton. Indicative prices for platform release were about 1,690–1,720 yuan/ton, while major platform release prices for large granular urea were 2,020–2,030 yuan/ton.

On September 29: Prices for unloading/shipment to the Tieling market in Liaoning Province were indicated at 1,790–1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day.

On September 29: The estimated price of urea shipped to Heze, Shandong Province, was about 1,730–1,740 yuan/ton, generally unchanged from the previous working day.

On September 29: The estimated price of urea shipped to Linyi, Shandong Province, was 1,760–1,770 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous working day.

On September 29: Key market quotes in Xianyang were 1,800–1,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day.